In our continuing coverage (see: obsessive-compulsive fixation) on fantasy baseball, we have all been gathering info on our respective sleepers. The three of us that intermittently write on this site are all in a highly competitive 12-team league, so an earlier sleeper article was out of the question, as this information was highly coveted by each of us. I even momentarily contemplated putting together a fake sleepers post to throw my colleagues off my trail, but I thought better of it, so as to maintain the pristine credibility of this fine site.
So better late than never, here is our comprehensive list of the players we consider sleepers; not necessarily big risks, but players that we think could play above their draft position this season. Just a quick disclaimer: We make no guarantee on the performance of any of these players and the opinions are based on our personal preferences and thoughts, so if all of the following players wallow through off-years... well at least you were warned, and you can be certain that the writers at Johnny O's Hat are suffering with you.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
- Don't be thrown off by his weird eyes, this guy could be money this season. His stats from last year don't jump off the page(12-11, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), but if you look at his production from June 20th onwards, he was a beast(10-5, 1.63 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
-Ranked at the 102 slot in Yahoo! drafts, I snagged him in the 9th round with the 101st pick... much to the chagrin of fellow writer, Matt Horner.
Daniel Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
-Acquired in the Edwin Jackson trade, a mid-July callup showed D-backs fans just what the future could hold. With an 8-2 record and ERA and WHIP of 2.45 and 1.00, across his 14 game sample, the results were obviously impressive. Whether they can follow over to an entire season remains to be seen, but right now there's nothing not to like.
-Currently ranked 141st in Yahoo! leagues, he can easily be taken around the 14th to 15th round, right around his ranking spot.
Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago White Sox
-Like his trade-partner, Jackson is another guy that can't be forgotten. His full season stats from last year aren't pretty and dictate his late draft position, but if you look at his stats after joining the White Sox in August, it creates a different picture. Once with the Sox, Jackson's record was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 9.25 K/9. As the 4th starter in the White Sox rotation, you can pick him up reasonably late too.
-Currently ranked 276th, you can safely grab him in the 21st round or later.
Shaun Marcum, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
- Last year I grabbed Marcum in the 20th round of our draft, those days are unfortunately gone, however, Marcum is still slightly undervalued in many drafts. He is past the Tommy John troubles of yesteryear and should do at least as well as last year, if not far better, pitching against the NL Central. With a more offensively talented group behind him (I don't mean it, Jays!), he should easily see an increase over last year's win total of 13 as well.
-He's ranked at 110 by Yahoo! but has been going around pick 117 in most drafts, so you can wait a bit, but don't feel bad about reaching by a couple picks.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
-The Rays seem to have a never-ended supply of amazing young pitchers, and Hellickson is the 2011 special. An August call-up last season started with 3 consecutive wins, where he posted a 1.35 ERA, with a 0.60 WHIP. His next start was a respectable 5-4 loss, after which he pitched only in relief. Despite the small sample size, Hellickson will start the season in the starting rotation and is easily worth a 3rd pitcher spot on any fantasy roster.
-He's currently ranked 189th in Yahoo! leagues, and should be taken around this point or a little earlier, somewhere near the 15th or 16th round.
Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
-Despite pitching on a typically disappointing Baltimore team last year, Matusz was another player that finished the season on fire, making his season stats quite deceiving. He was considered a sleeper by many fantasy experts last year (and amateurs, including myself), but fizzled in the early going with a 3-11 record to go with a 5.46 ERA at the end of July. For the next two months all he did was dominate, going 7-1 (beating the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Red Sox in that streak), and lowering his ERA more than a full run to 4.30.
-Ranked 191, he went at the 200th pick of our draft, so you should be able to take him as your 3rd pitcher or 2nd if you draft like me, ignoring pitchers until half of them are off the board.
Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, RP, Atlanta Braves
-It can be difficult to figure out any team's closer situation when a solid veteran leaves the mix, and such is the case with the Braves, where manager Fredi Gonzalez has decided to start the season with a closer-by-committee situation. The young lefty Venters showed some strong stuff out of the bullpen for the Braves, after a late-September callup, but Kimbrel was even better, coming up around the same time and allowing only 1 ER over 20 2/3 innings. Kimbrel was a closer in the minors, so he could be the more likely of the two to take the ball and run with it, but nothing is certain.
-Kimbrel is ranked higher at 165th in Yahoo! leagues, and is generally going in the Round 16-18 range, while Venters is ranked 221st, and is unowned in most leagues, and should be available on the waiver wire, or in the late rounds.
Infielders
Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Kansas City Royals
-I'll admit, I had no idea who Kila was up until a few weeks ago, when researching sleepers. But his numbers are very enticing. Don't let the Royals-association fool you, Kila has put up numbers in AAA and his short stints in the majors, that should translate well into a strong first full season. In 94 games at the AAA level last season, he put up 24 HR, to go with 78 RBI and a sick .465 OBP. His 8 HR in a brief major league stint last season, show that he has the pop and skill to keep up with MLB pitching too, so draft accordingly.
-He's currently ranked 289th in Yahoo! leagues, but don't think for a second that you can wait that long, with the easy possibility of 25HR and 90+ RBI, a more realistic bet is around Round 14-15, around 160th-180th.
Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
- I don't trust any Met after putting my faith in David Wright during his statistically illogical 2009 season (88R, 10 HR, 72 RBI with a .390 OBP), but Ike could be legit. Coming into his first season, firmly entrenched as the Mets first baseman, Davis nearly hit the 20 dinger mark (19), and had strong numbers year round last season, not like many players on this list who only caught fire in the tail end of the season. If Wright plays to his usual level, and any of Reyes, Bay or Beltran rediscovers their previous glory, Davis should prosper.
-Currently ranked 205th, he can be taken around the 19th round or later, a little after his draft position.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
-This might seem like a homer-pick (and to some extent it is), but if Hill moves back towards the player he was in 2009, rather than the lost-cause he was at times last year, he could be a steal at the 104th pick. Granted it is a high pick, so reaching is somewhat out of the question, but with few other options at second base, Hill could be a great value pick. Even with his off-year in 2010, his totals weren't disastrous (70 R, 26 HR, 68 RBI), so even if he repeats that performance it won't destroy your team.
-Currently ranked 104th, feel free to draft him there, which is around Round 9 or 10, but don't be surprised if somebody reaches for him because of the scarcity at 2B.
Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago White Sox
-Despite a somewhat bland 2010 campaign, the second baseman could still be posed for the breakout many predicted last year. Let's not forget that Becks is only 24 years old, and is playing a historically shallow position for an offensively talented White Sox lineup. With word that he is poised to hit 2nd, ahead of Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios (in some order) he should at least see a large increase on the 58 runs scored of 2010. He was another late-bloomer in 2010, hitting above .300 after the All-Star break, hopefully a sign of things to come.
-Ranked 125th, Beckham isn't much of a sleeper if your league sticks around the Yahoo! rankings with their picks, but he is definitely worth reaching a few spots if necessary.
Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, Detroit Tigers
-Despite being almost 30, Raburn could be set for a breakout season. He has had an up-and-down career, but looks to be on an up, that could possibly become permanent. His batting average fluttered near the Mendoza mark in late July, but Raburn turned on the jets when Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, lifting his average from a sickly .203 on July 24th to a more than respectable .280 at season's end (OBP rose from .277 to .340). He'll begin the season as the opening day left-fielder for the Tigers, but the 2B eligibility sticks and makes him very useful in most leagues.
-Currently ranked 208th in Yahoo! leagues, he is a great steal around the 17th to 19th rounds.
Outfielders
Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros
- Coming into his 5th major league season, Pence is still relatively unknown for a player that has put up 25 HRs in each of his last 3 seasons, to go along with consistent RBI and Run totals in the 80-90 range. The 27 year old is nowhere near his peak, and could easily hit the 100 mark in either Runs or RBIs, if any of his Houston teammates pick up their play (I'm guessing it would be Brett Wallace, if anyone, just to spite Jays fans).
-He's ranked 51st by Yahoo!, despite ending last season ranked 37th, so don't hesitate to reach a little bit in the 4th or 5th round of a 12 team draft.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
-Dubbed by many as the successor to Carl Crawford in the Rays outfield, he has shown the wheels so far, but you're going to have to wait on the power it seems. In a full season at AAA in 2010, Jennings best stats over 109 games were 82 Runs, and 37 SBs, to go with a .278 AVG and .362 OBP. These numbers are all in the minors, but remain impressive nonetheless. One unfortunate twist in the great Jennings plans of succession was the signing of Johnny Damon, many assume it is for a grooming-type relationship, but let's face it, grooming is not Johnny's strong suit. This means Jennings playing time is a question mark, as he'll start the season as the team's 4th outfielder.
-Currently ranked 262nd in Yahoo! leagues, feel free to grab Jennings if you have an extra bench spot in the last round, or feel like Damon will breakdown.
Peter Bourjos, OF, Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles,
-Known more for his speed than his offense, he's the kid between the grandparents in the Angels' outfield (Think of Bourjos as Tony Danza to Hunter and Wells' Christopher Lloyd and Danny Glover... ok, maybe not). Last year, the word was that his inferior offense couldn't keep his amazing defense on the major league roster, however, with a spring average of .375 and OBP of .469, the kid has got it going on, so much so that he is guaranteed to at least start the season with the big team. His speed will give him a ton of runs, and obviously the steals will be there too.
-Currently ranked at 231st in Yahoo! leagues, the lack of proven big league success means you can likely scoop up Bourjos in the final rounds of your draft.
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