Blue Jays Mirage About to Fade?

The Blue Jays have been a pleasant surprise this year. They have 30 wins, which ties them with the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds for second most wins in the entire league. At this point only the Tampa Bay Rays have won more games than the Jays. The Jays are playing so well that they are actually only one game out of the Wild Card. That’s shocking considering the Jays traded their best pitcher and readily admitted they were a re-building team.

They’ve amassed their 30-22 record on the strength of a solid pitching staff and the long-ball. The Jays lead the league with 88 home runs – 21 more than the Red Sox and Reds who are tied for second. At this point they really should be known as the Swinging Blue Jays because they’ve never seen a pitch they didn’t like. They have a paltry team OBP of just .310 to go along with 421 strikeouts. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks strike out more and they have strikeout king Mark Reynolds.

I’m not sure the Jays can continue to rely on the long-ball to win games considering Jose Bautista, John Buck, and Alex Gonzalez have accumulated 33 home runs. Only Gonzalez has hit more than 20 home runs in his career and that happened in 2004. I’m not sure these players will be able to continue their prodigious pace.

That’s one reason I’m not fully convinced the Jays record is for real.

Also, the strong Blue Jays record is very deceiving because they have only played one series against the Rays, two against the Red Sox, and none against the Yankees. Over those three series against the Rays and Red Sox the Jays have gone 2-8.

Most of the Jays’ wins have come from beating up on the weaker teams in the league. They have yet to face many of the league’s better teams. That’s about to change.

While the Jays are playing well at the moment, a prolonged losing streak seems imminent.

After concluding a weekend series with the lowly Baltimore Orioles today the Jays’ level of competition will greatly increase. They start a series with the Rays on Monday, followed by a visit from the Yankees for a three game weekend series, which is then followed by a trip to Tampa Bay to once again face the Rays.

The Jays won’t even receive a respite during inter-league play (something they are notoriously poor at historically). Following their stretch against the two AL East powerhouses the Jays play Colorado, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Philadelphia – none of whom have a losing record.

The month of June mercifully concludes with a trip to Cleveland, but by that time the Jays could quite possibly be battling the Orioles for the basement of the AL East. Although, considering the Orioles have only won 15 games it looks like the Jays will be safe.