Analyzing Alex Anthopoulos

In last night's Jays game versus the Rays, the broadcast team mentioned the work of Rays GM Andrew Friedman, and his ability to constantly attain young talent and rebuild when they inevitably leave via free agency. The Rays have been able to remain competitive over the past 3 years, while built almost exclusively around homegrown talent. This made me start to think about how the Jays strategy compares to that of their AL East rivals, as the Jays payroll is higher than the Rays but obviously miniscule in comparison to the Yankees and Red Sox.

During the short reign of Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, the young executive has stressed the importance of building a young team for future success, and many moves have represented this stance by dealing veterans for unproven prospects. With such a strategy it is impossible to currently analyze the full impact of Anthopoulos, but nevertheless, there have been a few moves that could already be seen as definite victories. The obvious example is the Vernon Wells dumping, I mean deal. Getting rid of the albatross of a middle-of-the-pack outfielder with a $126 million contract can only be described as a miracle. In the process, AA even extracted a valuable asset in 1B/C Mike Napoli (flipped for closer Frank Francisco) as well as a spare part in Juan Rivera.

Another very prudent move was the wheeling of a streaking Alex Gonzalez for a slumping but high-upside Yunel Escobar. After the trade, Gonzalez predictably cooled, while Escobar has been an upgrade defensively, and in on-base percentage, proving a valuable commodity at the top of the order. A sneaky throw-in to that deal was pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes who has been a contender for the starting rotation, despite some ugly outings thus far.

A name that has been on the lips of many Jays fans this season is Brett Lawrie. Anthopoulos showed that he wasn't afraid to rock the boat by sending away Shaun Marcum, coming right off a career year. Marcum battled back from Tommy John surgery to regain his pre-surgery form, and at 29-years old, isn't exactly over-the-hill, but Anthopoulos saw a peak in value and decided to act on it. In return for Marcum the Jays received not only a highly-rated prospect, but a highly-rated Canadian prospect in Brett Lawrie. With tales of ego and debauchery attached, Lawrie was depicted as a risk, but so far he has been nothing but money (.361 BA, .400 OBP, 4 HR, 16 RBI in 24 games), and Jays fans are salivating over the "prospect" of his promotion to the big team, which could possibly be as soon as this June.

But it hasn't all been sunshine, rainbows and unicorn boners in the early going for Anthopoulos. One move that still has some scratching their heads was the dealing of Brett Wallace. When Anthopoulos was faced with the prospect of trading Roy Halladay, the eyes of the entire league were on him, since you know, it's not everyday the best pitcher in the game is moved. Considering Doc was basically calling the shots with a no-trade clause, the Jays haul ended up looking relatively good, with three highly touted prospects coming their way in Brett Wallace, Kyle Drabek and Travis D'Arnaud.

The "sure-thing" of the group appeared to be Wallace, who tore up AAA and looked ready to become the Jays everyday first baseman after Lyle Overbay's contract expired at the end of the 2010 season. But Anthopoulos had other ideas and decided to go after a now Houston Astros prospect he had eyed in the original Doc Deal named Anthony Gose. A 20-year old speedy CF, the converted pitcher is noted as a threat on the base-paths (despite being caught on 29% of his attempts) and possesses an above average arm. However his bat has been seen as a serious weakness with a professional batting average of only .258 through just over 2 full seasons, and he was only promoted to AA this season, so is still a ways away from The Show. Wallace, on the other hand, was almost immediately thrust into the the Astros starting lineup. After a pedestrian showcase in the dog days of the 2010 season, Wallace has quickly adjusted in 2011, with a Pujolsian .450 OBP along with 12 runs and 10 RBI. The early signs point to a loss on the Wallace/Gose deal, but only time will time if that ends up being true.

Another area that Anthopoulos has gone against public sentiment or perhaps even common logic has been the early season roster moves in 2011. With a quartet of new relievers brought in, the bullpen has been constantly remodeled with two of the biggest moves being the exodus of David Purcey, and the conversion (demotion?) of Marc Rzepczynski to a reliever. Also having an out-of-options starter in Jo-Jo Reyes has led to the deserved demotion of Brett Cecil and the undeserved demotion of Jesse Litsch to AAA, just to keep an erratic Reyes with the team.

Despite the impact of those moves, one of the biggest shockers came just a few days ago, when a struggling Travis Snider was demoted to AAA, and 1B David Cooper brought up in his place. This has definitely been the hardest move to fully comprehend as Snider has often slumped in the majors but is still only 23 years old and would be much better suited working through his slump against big league pitchers than dominating AAA as he has in previous stints (tiny sample but right now he is 7-for-11 in AAA). Anthopoulos has shown through his other actions that the Jays are not a team of 2011, but more so 2013 and beyond, so why he would not allow a pivotal piece of that future team to improve against the best opposition is beyond me.

Overall, I think Alex Anthopoulos has done a fine job, but only time will tell if he is the next Gord Ash or J.P. Ricciardi. Let's just watch and wait and maybe Gose will turn into Carl Crawford (pre-Red Sox version please) and Snider will get his groove back in Las Vegas after forming his own one man wolf pack. Who knows?!

E5 Getting Nix-ed?

I knew coming into the season with a new coach, the Jays would be a different entity than the steady-state club of the Cito years. Only a handful of games have been played this season, but there have already been a Cito-season's worth of changes to the Jays roster under John Farrell, with the wheelin' and dealin' of Alex Anthopoulos contributing behind the scenes.

The first big shocker was the proclamation, just 3 days prior to Opening Day, that Jose Bautista would be the team's starting right fielder, despite the fact that he was penned in at 3rd base throughout Spring Training. The word from Farrell was that they felt this was the best defensive configuration for the team, with Edwin Encarnacion as the third baseman, and the cannon attached to Jose Bautista in right field. Also pointing to the fact that Edwin was in top physical form this season and a more capable fielder than ever.

The blogosphere was understandably weary of such a setup, with Edwin's .934 career fielding percentage, and 18 errors at 3rd last season, both standing as ominous signs. Also much like Bautista, Encarnacion had spent most of his time in spring training working at other positions, mainly preparing to be Adam Lind's backup at 1st base and starting at DH, with only a couple games played at 3rd base.

Conspiracy theorists guessed that this might have been a strategy by management to save face, after Bautista publicly asserted that he would prefer to play right field, right around the time of his contract extension. Rather than straight up concede to the new franchise player's demands, maybe they decided to make him sweat, who knows, but he ended up getting his wish. Bottom-line is, when it came time to make the first big league lineup of his managerial career, Farrell looked at the 5, and just couldn't help but think... Encarnacion.

In a short stint at the hot corner Edwin quickly reverted to his evil alter-ego... E5! In 4 games at the hot corner, Edwin had already accumulated 4 errors and Blue Jays management was quick to jump to their insurance policy. Utility infielder Jayson Nix was left off the Indians roster out of spring training and was quickly grabbed by AA for cash. Now a career .215 hitter doesn't exactly scream saviour, but so far, Nix has been quite adequate. Defensively, he's been slightly better than E5 with a few strong plays coming to mind, but he has made 2 errors in 10 games, so hard to tell if he'll be able to settle down, or just end up earning his own error-related nickname.

The question now arises of where does Edwin fit? I still think Edwin deserves some time to redeem himself at 3rd base, but at the same time, does anyone else remember what happened when a so-called "utility player" was given regular playing time last season?? He arose like a (bearded) phoenix from the ashes of a border-line career to a legit everyday player, if not an All-Star (Yeah, I'm sayin it!). For now it looks like when Edwin returns he should be back to DH along with Juan Rivera, and could pick up the odd start at 1st or 3rd base, but it should be interesting to see how this position progresses through the season... As most Jays fans also know, there's a certain sexy newcomer 3rd baseman down in Las Vegas right now too, and when a sexy newcomer gets involved, all bets are off!

Fantasy Island: Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2011

In our continuing coverage (see: obsessive-compulsive fixation) on fantasy baseball, we have all been gathering info on our respective sleepers. The three of us that intermittently write on this site are all in a highly competitive 12-team league, so an earlier sleeper article was out of the question, as this information was highly coveted by each of us. I even momentarily contemplated putting together a fake sleepers post to throw my colleagues off my trail, but I thought better of it, so as to maintain the pristine credibility of this fine site.

So better late than never, here is our comprehensive list of the players we consider sleepers; not necessarily big risks, but players that we think could play above their draft position this season. Just a quick disclaimer: We make no guarantee on the performance of any of these players and the opinions are based on our personal preferences and thoughts, so if all of the following players wallow through off-years... well at least you were warned, and you can be certain that the writers at Johnny O's Hat are suffering with you.

Could Pujols Actually Join the Cubs?

It seems highly likely that the best player in the MLB will become an unrestricted free agent once the 2011 season concludes. Contract talks between the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols went nowhere during the off-season and their self-imposed Spring Training deadline passed without an agreement. Negotiations will not resume until the end of the season.

The major snag during negotiations was both the size and length of the contract Pujols was reportedly asking for. Allegedly, the Cardinals’ slugger was looking for a whopping deal worth an average of $30 million per season over 10 years. This would be the largest contract signed in MLB history and would make Pujols the richest player in baseball.

The Cardinals are hesitant to commit such a large amount of money to one player on the wrong side of 30, but there’s a reason why people consider Pujols one of the greatest players of all-time. Over his 10 years in the league, Pujols has averaged over 40 home runs and close to 130 RBIs a year, to go along with a batting average that exceeds .330 and an on-base percentage that is over .425. He has won the NL MVP award three times and has never once – in all 10 years – placed outside of the top-10 in MVP voting. In fact, in four of those seven years he did not win MVP he was runner-up. He has made 9 All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves. He is simply consistently outstanding.

Theoretically, if Pujols becomes a free agent all 30 teams should line up to negotiate for the first baseman’s services. However, the price tag will certainly eliminate a large majority of teams from contention. Even financial heavyweights like Boston, Philadelphia, and New York seem unlikely destinations considering they are all paying a lot of money for Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira to play first base for the foreseeable future. However, one team that will have both the financial resources and the need for Pujols is the Chicago Cubs – the Cardinals’ historic rivals.

The Cubs are shedding tons of payroll at the end of the season as their contractual obligations to Kosuke Fukudome, Carlos Silva, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Pena are ending, which would open about $45 million in payroll. Fittingly, Chicago’s current first baseman, Carlos Pena, signed a one year deal, leaving the position vacant at the end of the season.

The Cubs’ need for Pujols extends beyond just a vacant position. The Cubs years of futility – 102 years without a World Series – are well documented. Even when they get close – like in 2003 – something goes inexplicably wrong (like a fan grabbing a would be out in foul territory), which lends credence to the belief that the Cubs are cursed. Pujols would immediately change the dynamic of the Cubs and change the culture of the team as well.

It seems unfathomable that Pujols would leave the Cardinals for the Cubs considering the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry is the NL version of Yankees-Red Sox. He would certainly be hated in St. Louis for such an act, but joining the Cubs has the potential to transform Pujols from a first ballot Hall-of-Famer into something even more mythic. If Pujols can lead the Cubs to a World Series title after more than 100 years of failure his legacy would reach Ruthian proportions.

Fantasy Island: Fantasy Baseball Team Names

It's early March, and that means that fantasy baseball leagues now have less than a month until opening day. The duties of any responsible fantasy team owner in this time are two simple tasks:

1) Mock that bitch:

Participate in a multitude of mock drafts to hone your technique and strategy. This also helps to prevent any draft day disasters such as taking Adam Wainwright ("Oh sweet! He's way down here in the rankings, everyone else is sooo dumb!!1"), or grabbing a reliever in the first round ("Mo's just always solid, guaranteed saves win!"). Make sure you downplay your obsessive nature by cutting your mock draft attempts in half in conversations with friends, cause nobody wants to be the fantasy pool psycho.

2) Give her a name:

This is always the first priority when you get your yearly fantasy league invite. You want to be original, funny, and baseball-related, and finding that trifecta is almost impossible to achieve. It's easy to just go with your favourite MLB team's name, or something related to your name ("Ted's Tigerz"), but if you really want to set the tone for future dominance, you've got to dig deep. To help those in need, I've compiled a list of mostly original fantasy team names, along with some old classics, neatly categorized:

Flight of the Garfoose

With spring training now underway, it has been interesting to see the many new names on the pre-season Blue Jays roster. The past off-season was an especially active one for GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, with a slew of acquisitions and an accordingly large number of departures. Of the many players that flew the coop from the Jays roster this off-season (ya like puns, do ya?), the one player that I will miss most is Dirk Hayhurst.

His release was one of the moves that went least noticed by the general public, but was most heralded (and lamented) on the internet. With a Twitter following of about 7,000, Dirk's following is comparable to Jays regulars JP Arencibia, Ricky Romero and Travis Snider (the three hover around 8-9 thousand followers each). This is impressive for a guy that hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009. But Hayhurst was beloved more for his role off the field than on (Case in point: Google his name and his Baseball Reference stats are a good three pages deep).

His off-the-field popularity stems mainly from the release of his book, The Bullpen Gospels in March 2010. This book is a personal memoir of Hayhurst's climb through the minors and his personal struggles throughout. I half expected to hear the usual pro athlete story of sleeping with as many girls as possible, and being half-drunk most of the time, in the model of David Wells "biography", Perfect I'm Not, but instead it is an emotional exploration of a man trying to not only achieve his goals, but questioning just what those goals are. If I've made it sound boring, it definitely is not, as there are tons of anecdotes and characters that create unbelievable mayhem. After reading the Bullpen Gospels, I had a new-found respect for Dirk, and admired his writing, both for its quality and content.

This new fandom made me proud that Dirk was a Jay and excited for his return to the mound in 2011. When the Jays signed Carlos Villanueva, I first thought "Hmmm, that might make a little battle for Dirk to make the bullpen". After the signings of Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch, I knew the writing was on the wall.

On January 3rd, Dirk stated on his blog that he would not be returning to the Jays for the 2011 season, as the team was going in a different direction. This was a great loss for the team, not only for the potential that Hayhurst has yet to realize on the mound, but also for a great person and compelling personality that will be impossible to replace.

Will Bautista Bomb?

Now that it's finally official, there's going to be endless dissection of the new $64 million, five-year contract handed out to Jose Bautista today. This is to be expected by a fan-base that has just come out from under a $126 million cloud named Vernon Wells.

The Vernon deal, well documented as a seven-year handcuff to the organization, was based on signing a player at his peak, and paying for his decline, and the verdict is still out on whether that will again be the case. Jose Bautista put up impressive numbers last year, with the obvious stats to quote being his league-leading 54 HR to go with 124 RBI. But the common question is, just how much is one season worth?

Blue Jays management gave their answer to that question today, with a contract that will pay Bautista $8 million this year and $14 million over the following 4 years, and possibly a 5th, if they pick up the club option. Now there are some aspects of this deal that just puzzle me right off the bat. First of all, in the contract signing press conference, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos stated that a big point of reference was the five-year, $62 million contract extension given to Braves second baseman Dan Uggla this off-season. Uggla has been a model of offensive consistency over his five years in the majors, with his RBI total ranging between 88-105 over those five years and his home-run total ranging from 27-33. His average oWAR of 3.76 is also impressive for a second baseman.

Bautista on the other hand, has not had the chance to show whether he is consistent or not. Many people saying this being due to him "not getting a shot" in other organizations to play everyday. As much as I love Joey Bats, I have to play the devil's advocate here and guess that there was probably some good reason why Bautista lagged on the depth charts for the first five years of his career. Especially considering three of those years were with the Pirates, who were not exactly a stacked team (though McLouth, Nady and Bay were all present in the outfield for a good part of Jose's tenure).

I can't help but also point out that the "team player" and "leader" qualities seem to get thrown on anyone who is signed to a contract that is bigger than their reputation. Bautista does seem involved in the team, and the response on Twitter from teammates was extremely positive, moreso than just professional courtesy would require, but I don't think that is ever something that makes more than a nominal difference in contract negotiations. When the Jays had the chance to sign Bautista for $10.5 for the next year, they balked and offered $7.6. And yet, by their current actions, it seems they believe Bautista will be worth double that offer starting when he is in his age 31 season.

Despite all of this nay-sayery, I actually like Bautista. With the Jays, he has been humble and consistent thus far, and with a team that is filled with potential he at least seems to be a player of the present, rather than the future. So it seems that Bautista will have to prove his worth on the diamond, and my hopes are that the only Bomb associated with Jose will be somewhere in the outfield bleachers.